YX 3445 · EWR → BTV

took off 10:14 PM ET · landed 11:05 PM ET (scheduled 10:12 PM ET → 11:54 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BTV?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3445 · EWR → BTV

Odds over time

How late did it get to BTV?