YX 3475 · EWR → DTW

departs 6:43 PM ET · arrives 8:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3475 · EWR → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?