Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3485 LANDED 12:20 PM CT, ~21 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 3485 · EWR → XNA

took off 10:40 AM ET · landed 12:20 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3485 · EWR → XNA

Odds over time