YX 3512 · OMA → EWR

took off 2:59 PM CT · landed 6:27 PM ET (scheduled 2:49 PM CT → 6:48 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.47 in

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3512 · OMA → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?