YX 3593 · ORD → CVG

took off 4:57 PM CT · landed 6:40 PM ET (scheduled 4:25 PM CT → 6:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CVG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3593 · ORD → CVG

Odds over time

How late did it get to CVG?