Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
YX 3644 · DTW → EWR
departs 7:06 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.