Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4344 LANDED 4:50 PM ET, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4344 · ORD → ROA

took off 2:29 PM CT · landed 4:50 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ROA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4344 · ORD → ROA

Odds over time