Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4350 LANDED 2:07 PM CT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4350 · JFK → BNA

took off 1:20 PM ET · landed 2:07 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4350 · JFK → BNA

Odds over time