Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4399 LANDED 4:09 PM ET, ~43 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4399 · CMH → JFK

took off 2:37 PM ET · landed 4:09 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from CMH are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4399 · CMH → JFK

Odds over time