Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4410 LANDED 10:57 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4410 · LGA → PIT

took off 10:04 AM ET · landed 10:57 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into PIT at that hour are usually not late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4410 · LGA → PIT

Odds over time