Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4426 LANDED 3:34 PM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4426 · LGA → OKC

took off 1:30 PM ET · landed 3:34 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OKC (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4426 · LGA → OKC

Odds over time