YX 4430 · BOS → LGA

departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4430 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?