Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4431 LANDED 10:40 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4431 · LGA → ORF

took off 9:44 AM ET · landed 10:40 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4431 · LGA → ORF

Odds over time