Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4432 LANDED 12:35 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4432 · LGA → TYS

took off 11:03 AM ET · landed 12:35 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4432 · LGA → TYS

Odds over time