Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4451 LANDED 10:28 AM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4451 · LGA → ILM

took off 9:14 AM ET · landed 10:28 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4451 · LGA → ILM

Odds over time