YX 4460 · CVG → ORD

departs 2:22 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4460 · CVG → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?