Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
YX 4461 · LGA → MEM
departs 2:29 PM ET · arrives 4:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.