Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4565 LANDED 2:13 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4565 · IND → LGA

took off 12:27 PM ET · landed 2:13 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4565 · IND → LGA

Odds over time