Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4571 LANDED 10:00 AM ET, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4571 · LGA → PWM

took off 9:09 AM ET · landed 10:00 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Arrivals into PWM at that hour are usually not late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4571 · LGA → PWM

Odds over time