Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4591 LANDED 1:02 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4591 · XNA → LGA

took off 9:24 AM CT · landed 1:02 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4591 · XNA → LGA

Odds over time