Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4594 LANDED 6:08 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4594 · ORD → MEM

took off 4:55 PM CT · landed 6:08 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4594 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time