Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4608 LANDED 3:16 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4608 · PHL → EYW

took off 12:27 PM ET · landed 3:16 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ 12pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4608 · PHL → EYW

Odds over time