Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4633 LANDED 1:56 PM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4633 · BNA → JFK

took off 10:59 AM CT · landed 1:56 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ 11am departures from BNA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4633 · BNA → JFK

Odds over time