Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4676 LANDED 10:19 PM CT, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4676 · BOS → MSN

took off 9:09 PM ET · landed 10:19 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

MSN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4676 · BOS → MSN

Odds over time