Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4685 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4685 · SDF → BOS

departs 8:53 PM ET · arrives 10:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4685 · SDF → BOS

Odds over time