Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4708 LANDED 9:51 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4708 · PHL → PWM

took off 8:48 PM ET · landed 9:51 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4708 · PHL → PWM

Odds over time