Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4748 LANDED 5:27 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4748 · YQB → JFK

took off 4:08 PM EDT · landed 5:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YQB

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YQB (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4748 · YQB → JFK

Odds over time