Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4758 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4758 · BWI → ORD

departs 6:36 PM ET · arrives 7:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4758 · BWI → ORD

Odds over time