Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4761 LANDED 8:44 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4761 · CVG → BOS

took off 6:41 PM ET · landed 8:44 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4761 · CVG → BOS

Odds over time