Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4762 LANDED 10:08 AM CT, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4762 · RDU → BNA

took off 10:02 AM ET · landed 10:08 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4762 · RDU → BNA

Odds over time