Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5591 LANDED 10:08 AM ET, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 5591 · LGA → BOS

took off 9:27 AM ET · landed 10:08 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5591 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time