YX 5593 · BOS → JAX

took off 7:51 PM ET · landed 10:16 PM ET (scheduled 8:35 PM ET → 11:39 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.03 in

JAX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5593 · BOS → JAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to JAX?