Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5628
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
YX 5628 · BOS → IND
departs 7:35 AM ET · arrives 10:16 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 10%
Thu 10/1 6%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.03 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.