YX 5665 · RIC → BOS

took off 7:51 PM ET · expected to land 9:00 PM ET (scheduled 6:59 PM ET → 9:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

LIVE

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5665 · RIC → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?