Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5811 LANDED 7:29 AM ET, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 5811 · PWM → LGA

took off 6:39 AM ET · landed 7:29 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from PWM are usually not late

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.13 in

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5811 · PWM → LGA

Odds over time