Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5821 LANDED 11:02 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 5821 · LGA → SYR

took off 10:19 AM ET · landed 11:02 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into SYR at that hour are usually not late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SYR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5821 · LGA → SYR

Odds over time