Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5822 LANDED 7:00 AM ET, ~18 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 5822 · RIC → LGA

took off 6:11 AM ET · landed 7:00 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ RIC is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility6.8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5822 · RIC → LGA

Odds over time