Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5841 LANDED 6:14 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

YX 5841 · PIT → DTW

took off 5:37 PM ET · landed 6:14 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5841 · PIT → DTW

Odds over time