9E 5053 · MDT → DTW

departs 5:06 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from MDT are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT

Weather at each end

MDT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5053 · MDT → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?