9E 5072 · SDF → DTW

departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from SDF are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5072 · SDF → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?