9E 5361 · PWM → LGA

took off 11:59 AM ET · landed 12:58 PM ET (scheduled 11:46 AM ET → 1:14 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ PWM is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ 11am departures from PWM are usually not late

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.08 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5361 · PWM → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?