AA 1012 · FSD → DFW

took off 6:22 AM CT · landed 8:06 AM CT (scheduled 5:59 AM CT → 8:18 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DFW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at FSD that day

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from FSD are usually not late

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1012 · FSD → DFW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DFW?