AA 1170 · COS → DFW

took off 4:24 PM MT · expected to land 6:45 PM CT (scheduled 4:10 PM MT → 7:13 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at COS that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

COS (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.71 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1170 · COS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?