Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1182 LANDED 8:41 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1182 · CHS → PHL

took off 7:19 AM ET · landed 8:41 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1182 · CHS → PHL

Odds over time