Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1195 LANDED 11:06 AM CT, ~18 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1195 · BUF → ORD

took off 10:50 AM ET · landed 11:06 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1195 · BUF → ORD

Odds over time