Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1224 LANDED 1:05 AM CT, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1224 · ORD → BNA

took off 12:07 AM CT · landed 1:05 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 12am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

BNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1224 · ORD → BNA

Odds over time