AA 1233 · SAT → PHL

departs 7:12 AM CT · arrives 12:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling9,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1233 · SAT → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?