Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1264 LANDED 8:39 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1264 · ORD → LGA

took off 6:06 AM CT · landed 8:39 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1264 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time