Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1391 LANDED 12:39 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 1391 · PHX → SAT

took off 8:56 AM MT · landed 12:39 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1391 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time