Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1436 LANDED 10:34 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1436 · PHL → IND

took off 9:07 AM ET · landed 10:34 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1436 · PHL → IND

Odds over time